Julia Gillard in top job longer than Rudd

Former prime minister Kevin Rudd has congratulated Julia Gillard for lasting longer as PM than he did. Source: AFP

KEVIN Rudd has congratulated Julia Gillard for lasting longer as Prime Minister than he did, as she moves past her bitter rival for time served in office today.

Yesterday Mr Rudd described Ms Gillard eclipsing his 935 days in The Lodge as an "important milestone".

Ms Gillard is now placed 16th on the list of 27 Australian prime ministers in terms of time spent in the job.

Asked about being overtaken by Ms Gillard, Mr Rudd said: "I congratulate the Prime Minister on achieving this important milestone.

"For 2013, I will be giving my all to support the government's re-election."

Ms Gillard has now achieved what former Labor PM Paul Keating could not - lasting longer than the man they knifed for the leadership.

Mr Keating served less than half the almost nine years Bob Hawke served as PM.

Ms Gillard is set to pass the service records of Sir Edmund Barton, Gough Whitlam and John Gorton before the year is out - if she runs full term.

This will mean she is likely to reach 13th place on the list.

PM Julia Gillard has today surpassed predecessor Kevin Rudd's time in office.

Acting Opposition Leader Warren Truss said: "Julia Gillard might celebrate beating the record of her rival (but) the Australian people will not celebrate the record of either." 

As 2012 began, Labor's primary vote tanked at 30 per cent - eight points below its level at the 2010 election, pointing to a massive landslide election loss. Only one in three voters were satisfied with Gillard's performance.

The prime minister had bowed to pressure from caucus, after an intense campaign by the clubs industry targeting marginal Labor seats, and abandoned her commitment to independent Andrew Wilkie on pokies reform. Wilkie ripped up his agreement to support the government.

The government had also tried to shore up its numbers by putting embattled Liberal turncoat Peter Slipper in the Speaker's chair but succeeded only in absorbing the political taint surrounding the Queensland MP.

Labor's internal wranglings dominated the first two months of the year, culminating in the ill-fated challenge by Kevin Rudd, who was teased and cajoled by Gillard supporters wanting to lance the boil of leadership speculation once and for all.

But it got worse for Labor and the prime minister.

Craig Thomson was suspended from the ALP after a Fair Work Australia investigation raised allegations he misused Health Services Union members' funds when he was national secretary between 2002 and 2007.

Opposition Leader Tony Abbott's anti-carbon tax campaign rolled on, with the coalition attempting to bring down the government by tossing censure motions onto the floor of parliament like confetti.

In mid-July, after the carbon tax began and with Gillard's satisfaction rating stuck at 27 per cent, the leadership speculation was rekindled, pushing the prime minister to declare she wasn't about to "lie down and die".

Caucus fears that the electorate had stopped listening to the government were palpable and were given voice by Joel Fitzgibbon, a key Right faction figure and the chief government whip.

"If leaders remain unpopular long enough they'll inevitably stop leading the party," he said.

But by late August - as the first post-carbon tax electricity bills began to flow and voters received their share of the carbon tax compensation - the opinion polls began to turn.

Abbott was lampooned by the government as "Chicken Little". Having forecast the sky would fall in once the carbon tax began, the reality was quite different.

Labor began a new strategy of questioning Abbott's integrity and fitness for office, and bemoaning his negativity.

It came to a head when Gillard launched her extraordinary "sexism and misogyny" attack on Abbott in parliament, which went viral on the internet and made headlines around the world.

However, the final weeks of the year saw Labor hamstrung by the asylum seeker issue and with question marks over the economy heading into 2013.

In the last Newspoll of 2012, the coalition's primary vote was one point higher (46 per cent) than at the start of the year while Labor's was two points higher at 32 per cent.

But Gillard led as preferred prime minister for the last six Newspolls of the year, ending with a nine-point lead over Abbott.

And for the first time, the polls showed more voters supported carbon pricing than opposed it.

Labor strategists now say the coalition's carbon tax attack shredded Abbott's credibility and reinforced his "Dr No" characterisation on other issues, and all under the glaring spotlight of the ferocity of Gillard's speech.

Political history shows that in terms of policy debate, there is often fierce argument followed by the policy being bedded down and the electorate moving on. The GST is a good example.

This is what Labor is banking on - that voters in 2013 will look at the big ticket policy items it has succeeded in delivering rather than the falterings of minority government.

Abbott's new problem is how to keep voters on side in the lead-up to the late 2013 election with his plan in government to scrap the carbon and mining taxes (and to an almost certain double-dissolution when the Greens and Labor combine to block a coalition rescinding bill in the Senate).

The opposition leader used the last week of parliament for 2012 to portray himself as an alternative prime minister with a positive vision for the nation.

He launched a book, A Strong Australia, featuring nine rejigged speeches made over the year and promised a coalition government would create one million jobs over the next five.

However, his new "Dr Yes" persona still risks being overshadowed by the negativity of the coalition's attack on Gillard.

The positive narrative for the government in 2013 lies in bedding down schools funding reform, rolling out the National Disability Insurance Scheme and National Broadband Network, and improving dental care.

Labor will also seek to harness voter disenchantment with coalition state governments over public service cuts and, particularly in Queensland, with divisions over policy and direction.

Abbott's Liberal-National coalition will hammer its multi-pronged but simple message: ending Labor waste, axing taxes, cutting red tape, stopping the boats and creating one million jobs over five years.

So as 2013 unfolds, Gillard appears to have put the leadership genie back in the bottle.

And there's no appetite for change in the coalition while it still has an edge over Labor in the polls.

There's just the end game to come.

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